1    Good morning.

2    It is my pleasure to welcome you to Singapore for the International Association of Maritime Economists Conference 2026. I am very glad to see such an esteemed gathering of maritime leaders, thinkers and policymakers. Your work helps us to understand not just the global maritime economy today, but also shapes how future generations will think about it.

3    IAME Conference ran its inaugural edition more than 30 years ago in 1994. It was a very different world then. The Cold War had just ended. The World Trade Organisation was being created. Globalisation was just accelerating. And internet was in its infancy.

4    Back then, the maritime industry’s priorities were clear — optimisation. We optimised routes. We optimised ships. We optimised ports. We optimised supply chains. And in doing so, maritime became the invisible engine of globalisation

5    Fast forward 30 years, the world has become more interconnected but also much more complex. We have lived through a global pandemic that brought supply chains to a standstill. We have witnessed wars and geopolitical tensions disrupt trade routes, energy markets and investment flows. We have seen climate change move from a long-term concern to an immediate business imperative. And we have seen advances in digital technologies and AI transforming industries and jobs at unprecedented speed

6    So, the priority today is no longer just optimisation. The priority today is navigating trade-offs. Should supply chains prioritise efficiency or resilience? Should ports invest in ammonia, methanol, hydrogen—or all three? How much data should companies share to unlock AI while protecting themselves from cyber risks? These are not engineering challenges alone. Nor are they purely economic challenges. They are strategic dilemmas. And strategy depends not only on what we choose to do, but also on what others choose to do. Governments respond to governments. Ports respond to competing ports. Shipping lines respond to cargo owners. Investors respond to policy signals.

7    Every decision changes the incentives for the next player. Increasingly, the maritime industry is operating in a world that cannot be explained by classical economics alone. It is operating in a world shaped by game theory. Game theory is often associated with mathematics. But at its heart, it asks a simple question. How rational actors make decisions when their outcomes depend on one another? I believe this provides a useful lens through which to understand today’s maritime landscape.

8    Let me start with the first game – geopolitics. 

9    For decades, global shipping pursued one objective above all else — efficiency. Today, countries are pursuing two additional objectives. They want resilient supply chains. And they want greater control over critical industries.

10    We have seen this play out in real time – from disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, to the reconfiguration of global supply chains. What was once viewed as the strength of global interdependence is now viewed as a source of strategic vulnerability. 

11    Together, these competing objectives form what I call the geopolitical trilemma: Efficiency. Resilience. Control. All three are desirable. Yet no nation can fully maximise all three simultaneously. Reshoring strengthens sovereignty but raises costs and creates new concentration risks. Diversification improves resilience but at the expense of efficiency and control. Global optimisation lowers costs but creates strategic dependence.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma of Geopolitics

12    It is, in many ways, a classic Prisoner’s Dilemma. Every country benefits from open and predictable trade. Yet every country also has incentives to protect itself, secure critical minerals and reduce dependence on potential rivals. Collectively, these actions make the global economy less efficient. Individually, every decision is entirely rational. The challenge is therefore not a failure of economics. It is the consequence of strategic incentives.

13    This logic is not unfamiliar to the shipping industry. In many ways, we have witnessed our own version of a Prisoner’s Dilemma through the capacity arms races that have shaped container shipping. Every carrier benefits from a market where capacity growth remains broadly aligned with demand. Yet each carrier also has strong incentives to invest in larger fleets and bigger vessels. If competitors expand while you stand still, you risk losing market share, network coverage and strategic relevance. As a result, every player is incentivised to keep investing. Collectively, the industry can end up with excess capacity and weaker returns. Individually, each decision remains entirely rational. The lesson is a familiar one. Outcomes are often shaped not by the intentions of individual players, but by the incentives facing all players. 

14    For maritime businesses, this fundamentally changes the nature of competitiveness. The question is no longer, “How do we build the most efficient supply chain?” It is, “How do we build one that remains competitive when efficiency is no longer the only objective?” Resilience is no longer merely an operational capability. It has become a strategic one. And that is why resilience is emerging as a new source of competitive advantage.

15    Let me turn to the second game – decarbonisation. 

16    If geopolitics resembles a Prisoner’s Dilemma, then decarbonisation resembles something very different. It is a Stag Hunt.

17    The trilemma here is between three objectives that every one of us supports: Cost. Sustainability. Competitiveness. We all want shipping to decarbonise. But doing so requires significant investments – in green vessels, green fuels, and green infrastructure. These investments raise costs. Yet, passing these costs on can affect competitiveness. 

18    As a result, many players choose to wait for others to move first. Not because they lack ambition. Not because they lack technology. But because they lack confidence that others will move at the same pace.

The Stag Hunt of Maritime Transition

19    This is the logic of the Stag Hunt. The Stag Hunt tells the story of two hunters. Together, they can catch a stag and enjoy a much greater reward. Separately, each can hunt a rabbit. The rabbit is smaller. But it is guaranteed. Everyone prefers the stag. But no one wants to be the only one chasing it.

20    This perfectly captures the green transition. Shipowners hesitate to invest in vessels powered by new fuels unless they know those fuels will be available. Ports hesitate to build bunkering infrastructure unless ships arrive. Fuel producers hesitate to invest in production capacity unless demand is assured. Cargo owners hesitate to pay a premium unless consumers are willing to pay for greener supply chains. Everyone wants the same outcome. Everyone benefits if the ecosystem moves together. Yet everyone fears moving alone.

21    Unlike geopolitics, this is not a problem of conflicting interests. It is a problem of confidence. In a Prisoner’s Dilemma, the solution is to align incentives. In a Stag Hunt, the solution is to build confidence. Leadership, in this context, means reducing uncertainty so that others have the confidence to invest alongside us.

22    The third game is digitalisation.

23    Technology is transforming the maritime sector at a pace few could have imagined just a decade ago. AI can optimise voyage planning. Autonomous systems can improve inspections. Predictive analytics can enhance maintenance. Intelligent port operations can improve productivity. But digitalisation presents a different challenge.

24    The digital trilemma lies between: Interoperability. Security. Agility. Each objective is desirable. Yet each constrains the others. Systems that are highly interoperable and highly secure are often difficult to implement quickly. Systems that prioritise speed and security frequently become closed and proprietary. 

25    Unlike geopolitics and decarbonisation, the challenge here is neither conflicting interests nor a lack of confidence. It is a lack of consensus.

The Battle of the Sexes of Technology Consensus 

26    Digitalisation resembles what game theorists call the Battle of the Sexes. Despite its unusual name, the insight is simple. A couple wants to spend an evening together but cannot agree on what to do. One prefers to watch a boxing match while the other prefers to watch a ballet. The key point is that both would rather spend the evening together than apart. But coordination requires someone to compromise. 

27    Digitalisation presents the same challenge. We agree on the value of electronic bills of lading. We agree on the value of data sharing. We agree on the need for interoperability. The challenge is not convincing industry that digitalisation is worthwhile. It is agreeing on the standards, platforms and protocols we should all adopt collectively. How? And on whose terms?

28    The risk is not that nobody moves. The risk is that everyone moves in different directions. Technology alone will not solve this challenge. Consensus will.

29    Ladies and Gentlemen, the three games we have discussed are fundamentally different. Geopolitics is a Prisoner’s Dilemma. It challenges us to align incentives. Decarbonisation is a Stag Hunt. It challenges us to build confidence. Digitalisation is a Battle of the Sexes. It challenges us to foster consensus. Different games. Different solutions. 

30    But together they point to a common conclusion. The maritime industry can no longer compete through efficiency alone. The world is increasingly shaped by strategic games. So, leadership cannot simply be about making better decisions individually. It must be about creating the conditions that enable others to succeed alongside us.

What is Singapore’s Response? 

31    As a small island nation, Singapore cannot determine the outcome of these global challenges on our own. But we can influence how they are addressed. Singapore's position as a global maritime hub was built on strong foundations — our strategic location, world-class port infrastructure, vibrant maritime ecosystem, and reputation as a trusted and well-connected hub. And for more than six decades, Singapore has created value by connecting markets, upholding trust, investing ahead of demand, and bringing governments, businesses and innovators together. These principles remain as relevant today as they were at the start of our maritime journey.

32    But the world has changed. And so must we. Our ambition is not merely to remain one of the world’s leading maritime hubs. It is to become one of the world’s most trusted and indispensable maritime partners. Because in a world of strategic challenges, the greatest value often comes not from being the biggest player, but from being the player that helps others succeed. And so, our strategy is guided by five priorities. 

33    First, we are investing in resilience as a source of competitiveness.

34    For many years, Singapore earned its reputation through efficiency. That remains fundamental. But resilience has become equally important. Flexibility, optionality and adaptability are no longer costs to be minimised. They are strategic assets. The most successful maritime hubs will not simply move cargo efficiently. They will keep global trade moving when the unexpected happens. We have witnessed this time and again. When major trade routes are disrupted – whether by the blockage of Suez Canal, tensions in the Red Sea or the recent uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz – global shipping networks come under strain. In such moment, shipping lines often rely on Singapore as a catch-up port: a trusted hub where schedules can be recovered, connections restored and supply chains brought back into rhythm. That ability to help the network recover is no longer just an operational strength. It is a strategic one. 

35    That is why Singapore continues to invest boldly in our future. With an expected annual handling capacity of 65 million TEUs, The Tuas Mega Port is not simply a larger port. It is a next generation port designed with state-of-the-art automation and digital solutions to provide greater scale, speed, flexibility and resilience for the global maritime network.

36    At the same time, we continue strengthening Singapore’s International Maritime Centre across ship finance, insurance, legal services, arbitration and maritime technology. A world-class port attracts maritime businesses. A vibrant maritime ecosystem, in turn, strengthens the competitiveness of the port. Together, they ensure Singapore remains a trusted maritime hub through changing economic cycles and geopolitical uncertainty.

37    Second, we are helping to reduce uncertainty for the green transition.

38    If decarbonisation is a Stag Hunt, then confidence becomes the catalyst for progress. Industry will invest only when it has confidence that others are prepared to invest alongside it. Singapore therefore sees our role not merely as building infrastructure, but as helping to create that confidence. 43. The maritime industry’s commitment to achieving net zero emissions by around 2050 represents one of the most significant transformations in its history. The destination is increasingly clear. What industry needs now is clarity on the pathway. 

39    Singapore remains committed to supporting the industry’s transition. As one of the world’s leading maritime and bunkering hub, we are facilitating trials of alternative marine fuels. We are supporting the electrification of our harbour craft fleet. And we are partnering internationally to develop green and digital shipping corridors, and developing rules and standards that can provide greater certainty to industry. Our objective is not to predict which technology or which fuel will ultimately prevail. Our objective is to create the confidence that enables industry to invest. Because confidence is the catalyst that turns ambition into action.

40    Third, we are strengthening ecosystems, not just infrastructure.

41    The maritime industry has always been an ecosystem. No ship sails without ports. No port succeeds without cargo. No supply chain functions without shipowners, financiers, insurers, technology providers, logistics companies and regulators working together. In the digital age, ecosystems become even more important. Competitive advantage will increasingly come not from individual assets, but from the strength of networks and partnerships. This has always been the philosophy behind Singapore’s International Maritime Centre. Through decades of hard work, we have managed to anchor more than 200 international shipping groups in Singapore, supported by a diverse ecosystem of shipping banks, class societies, P&I clubs, shipbrokers, maritime lawyers and more.  

42    Going forward, we are moving beyond physical connectivity to digital connectivity. We are building the foundations for a more connected and intelligent maritime ecosystem – enabling data to be shared securely, operations to be coordinated seamlessly and decisions to be made with greater speed and precision. Through initiatives like the OCEANS-X and Maritime Digital Twin, we are creating common data exchange platforms that allow industry, researchers and government agencies to collaborate more effectively. Our ambition is not simply to be a place where ships call. It is to be a place where the future of maritime is created.

43    Fourth, we are innovating for the future.

44    Throughout history, maritime has repeatedly reinvented itself. From sail to steam. From breakbulk cargo to containerisation. From manual operations to automation. Innovation has never been an option. It has always been the foundation of competitiveness. That remains true today. Artificial intelligence. Autonomous systems. Advanced robotics. Digital trade documentation. Alternative fuels. These technologies will reshape every part of the maritime value chain.

45    Singapore is therefore investing not only in technology, but in the conditions that enable innovation. We know that innovation rarely happens in isolation. It happens when researchers, entrepreneurs, investors, technology companies and industry practitioners come together to solve real-world problems. Through the Singapore Maritime Institute, we are fostering global partnerships in maritime R&D. Through initiatives like PIER71 and the Smart Port Challenge, we welcome innovators from around the world to develop and test solutions in real operating environments here in Singapore. Through the Maritime Innovation and Technology (MINT) Fund, we support companies to pilot and scale promising technologies. And we continue investing in maritime education, leadership development and workforce transformation. Because technology alone will not transform maritime. People will. Innovation ultimately begins with talent.

46    Fifth, we continue investing in trust as an economic infrastructure.

47    Perhaps Singapore’s greatest competitive advantage has never been geography. It has been trust. Trust that contracts will be honoured. Trust that regulations remain transparent and predictable. Trust that disputes will be resolved fairly. Trust that Singapore provides a stable and reliable platform for international business. In an increasingly fragmented world, trust becomes even more valuable. It reduces uncertainty. It lowers transaction costs. It encourages investment. It enables cooperation between parties that might otherwise hesitate. Trust is not simply a national value. It is a strategic asset. And we will continue investing in it.

48    Ultimately, the story of Maritime Singapore is one of continuous reinvention. For more than six decades, we have adapted to changing technologies, changing markets and changing global realities. Anchored in a clear mission. Driven by innovation. Strengthened by partnerships. And sustained by the people who make it all possible. The next chapter will require us to do the same.

Reimagining the Future: Maritime Singapore Masterplan 

49    To guide our journey, MPA will be developing a Maritime Singapore Masterplan. This industry-wide effort will identify future growth opportunities and strategies to position Maritime Singapore for its next phase of growth. Importantly, it will be co-created with businesses, industry stakeholders and the broader community. Because the future of Maritime Singapore cannot be built by any single organisation acting alone. It must be shaped collectively by the ecosystem that it serves. The Master Plan will provide a long-term roadmap to guide investments, business development, workforce transformation and capability building across the maritime sector.

Maritime is the Business of Reducing Friction 

50    Ladies and Gentlemen. For generations, the maritime industry has connected the world by reducing the friction of distance. Today, with a changing world, we face a different challenge. We must reduce the friction between competing national interests. Between technological possibility and commercial reality. Between individual incentives and collective outcomes. The strategic games I have described show us that many of today’s challenges are not failures. They are the natural consequence of rational players responding to uncertainty. That insight should not discourage us. It should encourage us. Because if these outcomes are shaped by incentives, then they can also be reshaped by leadership. That, I believe, can be Singapore’s enduring role as a global maritime hub. Not merely to compete. But to convene. Not merely to adapt. But to shape the conditions that enable others to succeed.

5 Priorities in a Changing World 

51    And the maritime leaders who will succeed in the years ahead will be those who do the same. Those who invest in resilience. Those who build confidence. Those who strengthen ecosystems. Those who innovate for the future. And those who earn trust. Because when we reduce uncertainty, we unlock investment. When we build confidence, we accelerate transformation. When we strengthen ecosystems, we multiply innovation. When we innovate for the future, we create new possibilities. And when we earn trust, we create the foundation upon which cooperation can flourish. If we can do that, we will not simply navigate the future of maritime. Together, we will shape it.

52    Thank you.